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If you stop a person on the street and ask them which races will define the future of the Senate, they will probably mention Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Even if this answer is correct, Republicans are quietly doing some hard work in a state that could become the big surprise of this year: Colorado.
There, incumbent Senator Michael Bennett, once labeled “a John Kennedy recloned,” is seeking his third term in the upper chamber. He will face Republican Joe O’Dea, a popular local businessman who described himself as a “possible Joe Manchin” of Colorado.
While the Republican has never led a poll and the polling average places him about eight points behind his rival, Joe Biden’s unpopularity could drag down an also unpopular Bennett and summon the ghosts of Cory Gardner, who surprised everyone with his 2014 win.
O’Dea is not a traditional Republican and he doesn’t bother to hide it either. That can play very much to his advantage in a state like Colorado, where he presents himself as a businessman capable of negotiating with both sides of the aisle. For example, he noted that he supports access to abortion up to 5 or 6 months, favors citizenship for childhood Dreamers and opposes repealing Obamacare, citing the need to protect those with pre-existing conditions.
“Speaking objectively, I think he’s presenting himself about the way he should. He’s punching all the right buttons in terms of his TV ads — riding horses and having his daughter campaign for him on TV, all those fundamental, smart politics. The candidates are two decent, two honest people, not attention-getting. So it’s awfully hard to dislike either one of them,” said former Democratic Senator Gary Hart of the Republican.
Cory Gardner’s ghost frightens Colorado Democrats.
The last time Republicans won a statewide election in Colorado was in 2014 and with a similar scenario. The “red wave” back then carried several Democrats in purple states and the “Cenntenial State” was no exception. However, the election between Cory Gardner and Mark Udall had been much more competitive in the polls.
“We could be surprised on the 8th, but at the moment with where the polls are, there’s this sense that (independent voters) just may not be available to the Republicans,” said Floyd Ciruli, who is in charge of the University of Denver’s polling program.
With just a month left before the midterm elections, Michael Bennett is leading in the polls but can’t get careless, knowing that a moderate Republican in a Republican year could complicate things for him at the last minute.
