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Trudeau Trailing Conservatives Ahead of Canadian Elections

Research shows support for Trudeau and the Liberals has dropped by two percentage points in the last week

[Leer en español]

The Conservative Party (CP) of Canada is ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party (LP) in voting intentions for the September 20 elections, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The Conservatives have 32 % support, one percentage point more than the Liberals, revealed the survey conducted by the firm Ipsos.

The research points out that support for Trudeau and the Liberals has dropped by two percentage points in the last week, while the Conservatives maintain the same voting intention.

The main beneficiary is the social-democratic New Democratic Party (NDP), which, with 23 % of voting intention, has gained two percentage points in the past seven days.

Ipsos pointed out that the Conservative lead is the result of a technical tie in three of the country’s main provinces, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, where none of the main parties has a clear advantage.

In Ontario, where 121 of the 338 seats in the lower house of Parliament are up for grabs, the Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat with 35 % and 33 %, respectively, of the vote. In Quebec, where 78 seats are up for grabs, the tie is between the Liberals and the pro-sovereigntist Bloc Québécois (BQ).

In British Columbia, which elects 42 seats, the tie is a three-way tie between the NDP, the Conservatives and the Liberals.

The Ipsos poll, conducted August 27-30 with 1,501 people interviewed, has a margin of error of 2.9 %.

Despite the fact that the Conservative Party is ahead in the polls, and due to the particularities of the Canadian electoral system of direct vote, the projection of seats carried out by the Canadian public broadcaster, CBC, indicates that the Liberal Party would obtain 138 seats, 6 more than the Conservatives.

The NDP would take 40 seats while the BQ would become the fourth party in Parliament with 27 MPs.

Also today, Trudeau presented the Liberal Party’s election platform which proposes C$78 billion (US$61.83 billion) in new investments over the next five years to respond to the crisis caused by the pandemic.

Trudeau unexpectedly called early elections on August 15, two years after the previous election call, with the intention of winning an absolute majority in the Lower House and when polls indicated that the Liberals had a voting intention of 36 %, 13 percentage points more than the Conservatives.

In 2019, the Liberal Party won 157 seats, the Conservative Party 121, the Bloc Québécois 32 and the New Democratic Party 24.

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