There are growing questions over the possibility of an early Trump 2024 announcement this fall, as the midterm elections campaign gains steam. An announcement would be a move that could reframe the entire narrative over this year’s elections. The potential move by Trump has been reported by The Washington Post and apparently confirmed by Trump’s less-than-subtle remarks in an interview with New York Magazine.
The reports and speculations come just a few days after The New York Times released a poll, showing that Biden is in a very weak political position due to his abysmal popularity numbers and that the GOP base is evenly divided over nominating Trump again in two years’ time.
The Post claimed that Trump has wanted to announce an early candidacy for some time and that a number of his closest allies and advisers are now urging him to confirm his bid before the midterms as a way to enhance his political position. The article claims that advisers to the former president say the odds are “70/30 he announces before the midterms.” Some GOP strategists are reportedly opposed to that move, claiming that it could hurt the GOP’s campaign to retake Congress.
The report from the Post has also been apparently amplified by Trump’s own remarks to the New York Magazine, where he said that he has “already made that decision” when asked about a potential 2024 presidential run and when he was asked by the reporter about the midterm elections, Trump asked himself “Do I go before or after?” added, fueling speculations, that “I just think there are certain assets to before.”
The political calculations behind an early Trump 2024 announcement
A potential early announcement of his candidacy could be a game changer for both Democrats’ and Republicans’ strategies and chances to control Washington before the 2024 presidential elections. Democrats would try to capitalize on the divisiveness of the former president as a way to mobilize their base and convince moderates to vote for them despite Biden’s widespread unpopularity.
Moreover, an early Trump 2024 announcement could have some significant effects on the Republican Party’s strategy to retake Congress and in the 2024 field of presidential hopefuls. First, it could leave some Republican candidates in swing districts vulnerable to attacks from their Democratic opponents who will try and turn the election into a referendum on the former President instead of on Biden. The flip side of that argument, however, is that Trump’s announcement could energize the Republican base and ensure a GOP victory later this fall.
"*" indicates required fields
An early Trump announcement would also add another layer to the incoming 2024 fight for the GOP nomination. Campaigns of potential primary opponents will have a harder place to start if Trump runs. The status of a declared presidential nominee will inevitably give more media coverage to Trump, which could improve his chances to win the nomination again. The last New York Times/Sienna poll shows that Trump if he finally confirms his nomination, is the candidate to beat since 49% of Republican voters would vote for him, although the poll also showed that current Florida governor Ron DeSantis would have 25% of the vote in a potential matchup against Trump.
Whether the former president decides to start his third consecutive bid for the presidency before or after this year’s midterms remains only known to himself. What remains clear, from the post article and from his own remarks, is that the question Republicans are asking themselves is not if Trump will run but rather when will he announce, and, if anyone is going to oppose him.