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El American’s Prediction for the Midterms

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Dear readers of our distinguished newsletter, as famous UFC announcer Bruce Buffer would scream from the top of his lungs: IT’S TIME!!!!

The midterms are here, and El American predicts a red wave, but not a red tsunami.

A couple of months ago, it seemed that Biden was able to avert a worst-case scenario. The Democratic Party was set to keep the Senate, and even maybe stretch its lead by one seat, and would lose the House by only a few seats.

However, something quite near to a worst-case scenario is set to happen in the midterms.

First, let’s go with the House. Democrats enjoy a small 220-212 majority, which means you don’t need to be an expert in the arcane arts of fortune-telling to say that Republicans will flip the House. The real question is by how many.

We believe Republicans are set to take about 30 or 35 seats from the Democratic Party in these midterms. Some notable wins? Allan Fung in the Second District of Rhode Island (the first Republican Representative from New England in decades), Monica de la Cruz in Texas’ 15th, Mayra Flores in Texas’ 34th, and Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th.

Now, what about the Senate? Everything goes down to five races: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.

We predict that Dr. Oz will defeat John Fetterman to keep the Pennsylvania seat red (and Dr. Oz away from another talk show) and that Republicans will win in Nevada and Georgia (however, the Georgia race might go to a runoff after the midterms).

What about Arizona and New Hampshire? It’s trickier. Even though the most sophisticated poll aggregator, FiveThirtyEight, only gives Blake Masters, the Republican candidate, a 34% chance, two months ago, the same aggregator gave him a 21% chance, which means momentum is on his side. I believe that some pollsters also made some very weird sample decisions that might put Mark Kelly in a better position than he actually is.

Moreover, a couple of days ago Libertarian candidate Marc Victor pulled off the race and endorsed Masters, which might give him the necessary 2-3% to narrowly send the former astronaut back to space (sorry, had to do it). Lastly, Kari Lake has increased her difference with Democratic candidate, Katie Hobbs —who ran a terrible campaign— by a margin wide enough that might also make Masters victorious.

And what about New Hampshire? Really, don’t ask me. Don Bolduc seems like a better candidate for Missouri than New Hampshire. He’s a hardcore Trumpist, he claimed there was fraud in the 2020 election, and he’s a candidate in a heavily white, college-educated state near New England. But somehow, he seems to have a chance. Maggie Hassan is a very unpopular incumbent and the Republican momentum might be driving Bolduc upwards. Moreover, the incredibly popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu endorsed him. New Hampshire’s probably the weirdest Senatorial election from the cycle, and although I wouldn’t bet on a Republican victory, this could be the surprise of the night.

Therefore, we believe Republicans are set to have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but with New Hampshire as a toss-up, it could be 54-46.

What other races to watch? Honestly, the rest of the Senate is pretty much decided. The GOP might get close in Washington and Colorado but not enough, whereas Ohio, Wisconsin, and North Carolina might be a little close, but the GOP will win these races.

Last but not least: Governor races. Wisconsin is a dead heat, but the popular and effective Senator Ron Johnson might have a large enough victory to also carry Tim Michels as governor with him. Joe Lombardo and Kari Lake of the GOP will become governors of Nevada and Arizona, respectively, and in a wild turn of events, Oregon will have its first Republican governor in four decades in Christine Drazan.

Two races to watch with an outside chance: Michigan and New York. Everything indicates that Tudor Dixon is closer to becoming the Michigan governor than FiveThirtyEight projects, but it’s still a long shot. In New York, Republican Lee Zeldin has run a near-perfect campaign focused on crime. It will probably not be enough to edge out Gov. Kathy Hochul, but it will revitalize the GOP in the Empire State.

Former Democrat rising stars Robert O’Rourke and Stacey Abrams will suffer terrible defeats in their attempts to become governors of Texas and Georgia, respectively.

Therefore, Joe Biden’s last two years as president quite likely will be marked by an open confrontation with a Republican-controlled Congress.

Edgar is political scientist and philosopher. He defends the Catholic intellectual tradition. Edgar writes about religion, ideology, culture, US politics, abortion, and the Supreme Court. Twitter: @edgarjbb_ // Edgar es politólogo y filósofo. Defiende la tradición intelectual católica. Edgar escribe sobre religión, ideología, cultura, política doméstica, aborto y la Corte Suprema. Twitter: @edgarjbb_

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