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A recent Wall Street Journal poll shows the Latino vote, long thought to be a reliable Democratic voting bloc, is evenly split between both parties. The survey is the latest of numerous polls that show a significant rightward shift within Hispanic voters. If accurate, these polls could spell doom for the Democratic Party, which had counted in big Latino support as a key part of their coalition.
When asked which party they would support if elections were held today, the polled Latinos were evenly split—each party received 37%. The bad news for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party is not only reserved to Congress as Hispanics only give a very slim 1-point advantage to Biden when asked about a hypothetical Trump-Biden rematch.
This is a remarkable shift from the 2020 election when exit polls showed that 63% of Hispanics supported the Democratic candidate.
Latinos, just like the majority of the country, heavily disapprove of the way the President is doing his job as 54% of Hispanics disapprove and only 42% approve.
The poll also has the economy, not immigration or social-related issues, as the single most important issue that Biden and Congress should address and a majority of respondents think the economy is heading in the wrong direction. Crucially, most Hispanics think that the Republican Party would be more able than the Democrats in handling the economy.
According to the poll, 45% of Latino men would support the GOP, almost a mirror image of the 46% of Latino women who are sympathetic to the Democratic Party, Hispanic men were also more likely to vote for Trump and to disapprove of Biden than Latina women.
Although the poll has a large margin of error, it illustrates an ongoing shift in the political preferences among Latinos. Just in 2020, the Republican Party made significant inroads (8 points according to a Democratic pollster) in the Hispanic community. This year the GOP managed to win heavily Latino areas that have historically voted for the Democratic Party and apparently improved their margins among Virginia Latinos. To make matters worse for Biden, poll after poll shows that Latinos are souring on him as his approval ratings going down almost twenty points in various polls.
Daniel is a Political Science and Economics student from the University of South Florida. He worked as a congressional intern to Rep. Gus Bilirakis (FL-12) from January to May 2020. He also is the head of international analysis at Politiks // Daniel es un estudiante de Cs Políticas y Economía en la Universidad del Sur de la Florida. Trabajo como pasante legislativo para el Representate Gus Bilirakis (FL-12) desde enero hasta mayo del 2020. Daniel también es el jefe de análisis internacional de Politiks.