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Whenever a new cycle begins, a new year, the usual thing is to try to see what reality has in store for us in the new days. We must do the same on 2021.
That is exactly what we will aspire to do here in these brief lines, only that we will stop – as usual – to take a look at worldwide political dynamics, where the axis of the year will gravitate around the pandemic and vaccination, where the WHO is once again discredited after affirming that the Chinese vaccine “Sinovac” had an effectiveness of 78%, something denied by the prestigious Brazilian institute Butantan, whose study revealed that it has an overall effectiveness of only 50.38%.
We will begin with Asia, where tension is basically centered around two poles: North Korea, again since there was never a concrete, time-specific agreement on weapons of mass destruction, and its hostile relationship with its southern neighbor will continue.
On the other hand, and perhaps most importantly, consider the new role of Xi Jinping’s Communist China, not only with its skirmishes with India over a long-lasting border conflict, but also over its evident change of rudder in its foreign policy from passivity and discretion to its aspiration as the world’s hegemonic power.
There are still unresolved issues in 2021, such as the true origin of the present pandemic, the mysterious absence of the virus in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the political and economic centers of China, respectively. In addition to its mask diplomacy, its economic strengthening with respect to other countries in the world during the pandemic and even more so in post-pandemic times (if it ever happens), the control of organs of world diplomacy such as the WHO and its penetration into extra-regional spheres, such as the United States and Latin America.
On the other hand, the Middle East will continue in 2021 with unresolved local crises like Syria, Libya and Yemen, in addition to the long-lasting role of the theocratic regime of Iran, also with pointed interventions in Latin America, specifically in Venezuela. Finally, the historical conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbors seems to have calmed down after the peace agreements reached by the Trump Administration, which were achieved without the use of force.
As for Europe, the region will suffer notable changes, the continuity of the Brexit situation, partially agreed upon and already in place at the end of 2020. Also, 2021 will face the departure of the veteran and globalist German Chancellor Angela Merkel, which will undoubtedly represent a significant change for the leadership of the European Union, and finally a Spain suffering a strong political polarization between the government of Sánchez-Iglesias and democratic actors such as libertarians Santiago Abascal and his party Vox, a confrontation that we will see continue this year even more strongly.
The Americas in 2021 will basically remain not only in tension but also in conflict, since, in the U.S., polarization did not end with Biden’s disputed electoral victory, as well as the Republican versus Democrat war observed in the assault on Congress, Pelosi’s obsession with removing Trump, even knowing that time would run out, and, in the streets, the clash between Trump’s supporters and the progressives and Democrats will continue.
Further south, the already long-running Venezuelan crisis remains a dead end, especially when President Guaidó, in addition to being directly involved in corruption cases as happened in Paraguay, also lost recognition from the EU, and the new administration in Washington will surely do the same, thus going into oblivion with more grief than glory.
We close with Argentina, a country in which, in just one year, President Fernández has already taken great steps to create the homogeneous abject and opprobrious pauperization of society, and a Brazil living with a time bomb, experiencing galloping inflation, loss of jobs, and with a progressive media that manipulates information to encourage the rejection of Bolsonaro’s conservative government.