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GOP will Have its Strongest Support Among Latino Voters in 28 Years, Survey Finds

Votantes latinos, El American

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The Republican Party has gained ground among Latino voters over the Democratic Party heading into the November midterms, narrowing the historic gap to numbers not seen since 1994, according to a recent study.

54% of Latino voters plan to vote for Democrats, while 33% will back Republicans, according to a poll conducted by the organization Bienvenido and WPA Intelligence.

During the “blue wave” in the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats outperformed Republicans in the Hispanic vote by a 40-point gap. Four years later, the gap has been cut in half (21 points).

Republicans “less hostile” to Latino voters than Democrats

Bienvenido’s survey revealed growing dissatisfaction among Latinos with Democratic policies. Seventy-four percent think the state of the economy is poor, while 56% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and do not want Biden to seek re-election.

The data is also revealing on the issue of immigration. While 76% of Latino voters believe in deporting illegal immigrants who commit crimes, 74% would allow undocumented immigrants to remain in the country if they comply with the law, passing a background check and paying the associated fines.

Bryon Allen, a partner at WPA Intelligence, told Newsweek that Republicans continue to gain the confidence of Latinos, who are “frustrated with an economy they see as leaving them behind,” although he made clear that improving those numbers will not be an easy job.

“Improving upon 2020 won’t be easy,” he added, “with nearly 40% of Hispanics living in California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey,” Allen said. “But as this poll shows, the GOP can improve, especially with Spanish-dominant Latinos.”

Bienvenido’s numbers are consistent with Pew Research Center studies regarding the 2020 election results, which showed a 25-point lead for Democrats (53%) over Republicans (28%).

A poll by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) also found a 25-point margin (55% vs. 30%). Its CEO, Arturo Vargas, told Newsweek that “it’s becoming clear that Republicans have gained significant ground with Latino voters since the last midterm cycle.”

“Latino voters are perceiving Republicans as less hostile towards them compared to 2018,” Vargas explained,” and Republican outreach to Latino voters is at its highest level in our five weeks of polling.”

The Bienvenido survey polled 1,288 registered Hispanic voters including 1,086 likely voters: 50% Democrats, 32% Republicans and 15% independents.

Tomás Lugo, journalist and writer. Born in Venezuela and graduated in Social Communication. Has written for international media outlets. Currently living in Colombia // Tomás Lugo, periodista y articulista. Nacido en Venezuela y graduado en Comunicación Social. Ha escrito para medios internacionales. Actualmente reside en Colombia.

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