Leer en Español
Three things are sure in life: Death, taxes, and that the ruling party loses the midterms.
So, when analysts said the Republicans would win the midterms the actual question was by how much.
However, after the Roe v. Wade decision in the Supreme Court and a small decrease in gas prices, Democrats enjoyed a short honeymoon where most analysts did not believe that a “red wave” would be incoming. Most predictions indicated a small majority in the House and that Democrats would retain the Senate.
But, all honeymoons come to an end.
Inflation never really went away and now the momentum is on the Republican side. While a large majority of voters indicate that the economy, and particularly inflation, is the main reason why they’re voting, Democrats are spending 10x more money on abortion ads than inflation ads. They’re running a campaign on abortion and voting rights when the country is suffering its highest inflation in 40 years.
The result? Republicans are heavily favored to take Senate seats in Georgia, and Nevada, and have a chance in Arizona and New Hampshire. Even Senate seats in blue states such as Washington and Colorado are in play. Pennsylvania, which seemed an easy pick for Democrats, will almost surely stay red. Oregon will likely see its first GOP governor in 40 years, Lee Zeldin has a shot in New York, and in Florida, the only question is if Ron DeSantis will manage to win by double digits and if he’ll take Miami Dade from the Democrats hands.
Inflation might have paved the way for a red wave.
Funnily enough, a few months ago, “analysts” were saying that people did not care about inflation because they would not understand it as a macroeconomic concept and that it did not directly affect them.
They were wrong… once again.
Edgar is political scientist and philosopher. He defends the Catholic intellectual tradition. Edgar writes about religion, ideology, culture, US politics, abortion, and the Supreme Court. Twitter: @edgarjbb_ // Edgar es politólogo y filósofo. Defiende la tradición intelectual católica. Edgar escribe sobre religión, ideología, cultura, política doméstica, aborto y la Corte Suprema. Twitter: @edgarjbb_