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The victory of the FdI (Brothers of Italy), of Giorgia Meloni, and the right-wing coalition in the general elections of the next 25th in Italy will be very wide, according to the electoral polls, the last ones to be published until the elections, which coincide in that it can be the most ample triumph in republican history.
There are no major differences between today’s polls, the last day in which the Italian law allows their public dissemination, although the parties will continue to do so until the end of the campaign: The winner will be Meloni, who can reach 25 % of the votes, while the right-wing coalition maintains almost 19 points of advantage with respect to the progressive Democratic Party (PD) and its small allies.
“If it were finally to be so it would be the greatest achievement of the Republican era. The prediction is clear: the differences are so big that the outcome of the elections is no longer in doubt,” writes the Ipsos institute in the conclusions of its poll published today by the daily “Corriere della Sera”.
The poll also gives the projections for the seats in the Chamber and Senate and according to the analysis, the right wing would end up with 249 seats out of 315 in the Chamber of Deputies and 121 out of 200 in the Senate, which would be about 60 percent of the parliamentary representation.
In detail, FdI could reach 25.1 %, while the PD would be the second party with 20.5 %, although with a drop of almost two and a half points in the last week which has set off the alarms.
Its Secretary General, Enrico Letta, has warned his candidates that in the case of continuing to lose points there could be the option of a right-wing party reaching up to 70% of the parliamentary representation. And with three quarters of the Parliament the Constitution can be changed without the need to call a referendum.
With the victory already secured by the right wing, the analysis of the results focuses on the lack of consensus for the second party of that alliance, Matteo Salvini’s League, which in the last elections was the option of the conservatives and now stands at 12.3 %, which would reduce its influence in the next Executive as well as Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, which does not exceed 8 %.
In addition, there is a rise of the 5 Star Movement (M5S) of Giuseppe Conte, with 14.5 %, which does not seem to join the left-wing coalition after the rupture before the elections with the PD, for being the architects of the fall of Mario Draghi.
The so-called “third pole”, formed by the centrists Action and Italia Viva and with whom the PD did not reach an agreement either, stands at 6.7%, while the allies with Letta: Greens and Italian Left would manage to enter Parliament by narrowly exceeding the limit of 3%, as would Emma Bonimo’s + Europe, which would also narrowly exceed 3%.
“The PD in recent weeks has been in trouble, penalized by the growth of the M5S and the ‘Third Pole’ and by the risk of a limited mobilization of a part of its electorate resigned to defeat,” explains the Corriere della Sera poll.
For the experts, those who declare themselves undecided or those who will abstain add up to about 35% and it will be very difficult for this to change the results.