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With many votes still to be counted in key states for the fate of the Senate, such as Nevada, Georgia and Arizona, there is one election that was decided surprisingly early: Pennsylvania. Against the odds of the last handful of polls and the bookmakers, Democrat John Fetterman prevailed over Mehmet Oz.
Late in the evening of November 8 and with more than 80% of the tables counted, Fox News was one of the first to declare the Democrat the winner by a margin of approximately 3%.
The result came as a bit of a shock, both to the GOP and to all those who were expecting a red wave. For example, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, the Republican was leading the race by 0.4%. While Fetterman’s win would fall within the margin of error, the trend was much more favorable to Oz.
In recent weeks, winds of Republican triumph blew across Pennsylvania. Even some more progressive analysts, such as Ethan Kelly of Let’s Talk Elections, predicted a GOP victory.
Kelly also remarked on the importance of the candidates in this election. For example, he called Oz a “weak” nominee for Pennsylvania and asserted that if Dave McCormick had won the nomination, the race would already be “close” for the GOP.
“Dave McComirck was a better candidate for that race,” Ben Shapiro said about it after the election, blaming poor candidate selection by the GOP.
“I never expected that we were going to turn these red counties blue, but we did what we needed to do and we had that conversation across every one of those counties. And tonight, that’s why I’ll be the next U.S. senator for Pennsylvania,” Fetterman noted in his victory speech.
The current lieutenant governor improved on Biden’s performance in Philadelphia and Allegheny, prevailed in Erie County (targeted by Republicans), and remained competitive in counties such as Berks, Lancaster, and Luzerne on his way to victory.
The importance of early voting prior to the debate
Some political commentators recalled that by the time of the Oz and Fetterman debate, which clearly benefited Oz, early voting had already begun.
According to Pennlive.com, 556,000 votes had already been cast days before the event. At the time, the Oz campaign charged that many people would change their vote after the event, something that, according to Oz’s own subsequent polls, did happen.
Joaquín Núñez es licenciado en comunicación periodística por la Universidad Católica Argentina. Se especializa en el escenario internacional y en la política nacional norteamericana. Confeso hincha de Racing Club de Avellaneda. Contacto: [email protected] // Joaquín Núñez has a degree in journalistic communication from the Universidad Católica Argentina. He specializes in the international scene and national American politics. Confessed fan of Racing Club of Avellaneda. Contact: [email protected]