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This Special Election in New York Could Hint at Looming ‘Red Wave’ in November


ANDREW CUOMO’s resignation as Governor of New York caused the state’s administration to rearrange some of the pieces. Kathy Hochul took over and picked as then.-U.S. Congressman Antonio Delgado as the Lieutenant Governor, who had to give up his 19th district congressional seat. On August 23, Republicans will try to regain the seat in a key election and fuel the fire of a possible “red wave” in November.

Many saw the current governor’s move as risky, since Delgado won re-election by an 11% margin. With her name not on the ballot, the GOP is favored to take the seat some predict.

Who is Running for the Seat?

The upcoming August 23 election is one of the last special elections of the cycle and will feature Pat Ryan (D) against Marc Molinaro (R). The former is an Iraq veteran and businessman who was defeated by Delgado for the Democratic nomination in 2018. For his part, the latter was a state legislator and GOP nominee for New York governor in 2018, a race he lost to disgraced Andrew Cuomo.

Polls show a more favorable scenario for Molinaro, who, according to the latest polls, would prevail in the election.

The 19th District includes the counties of Columbia, Delaware, Greene, Otsego, Schoharie, Sullivan and Ulster, and parts of Broome, Dutchess, Montgomery and Rensselaer counties.

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Its voters have shifted along with the national political climate in recent years. For example, since 1996 they have voted for every presidential candidate who ended up crossing the 270-voter threshold. Two years ago, Joe Biden carried the district by a margin of just two percentage points.

Why Is the 19th Congressional District Important?

At the beginning of 2022, a “red wave” was the most certain scenario in November in both the House and Senate. However, over the past few months, the polls have evened out to such an extent that Democrats now appear favored to take the Senate in November.

New York’s 19th district was not looking like one of the most competitive in the cycle, but that all changed with Delgado taking over as the state’s lieutenant governor. It opened an interesting door for the GOP to definitely take the gavel away from Nancy Pelosi.

In addition, it would be a much-needed boost given that they sweated too much to win the special elections in the first electoral district in Nebraska and Minnesota.

“I would bet that the Republicans do win here but if they don’t it will be a very big display of ineffectiveness across this congressional district because it’s been closely watched and it’s even more closely watched following Minnesota Nebraska and Texas.” Ethan Kelly, a popular election analyst on YouTube opined on the matter.

Therefore, an election in which the Republicans have serious chances of keeping a district that in 2020 was tinged blue by 11%, and could be the final push they need to secure the House of Representatives from 2023 onwards.

Joaquín Núñez es hincha de Racing Club de Avellaneda y licenciado en comunicación periodística por la Universidad Católica Argentina. Se especializa en el escenario internacional y en la política norteamericana // Joaquín Núñez is a fan of Avellaneda's Racing Club and has a degree in journalistic communication from the Universidad Católica Argentina. He specializes in the international scene and American politics.