The November 2020 presidential election continues to be the talk of the town. After the accusations of widespread fraud, the controversies over the legal battles to modify election laws and finally the takeover of the Capitol; now there are data and analysis that explain the keys to the triumph of Joe Biden, and the good choice made by Donald Trump despite his defeat, becoming the most voted active president in the United States and the Republican who best competed for the Latino vote.
The keys: Latino vote, sex-gender breakdown, suburban voters
A thorough analysis by the Pew Research Center highlighted several of the transcendental points to explain the election results. This allows us to understand where Democrats and Republicans played their cards right and where they did not.
According to the analysis, last year’s election “featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts.” For instance, the November 2020 election was narrower in the gender gap than the 2016 and 2018 elections, with both Trump and Biden adding votes among women and men.
“In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points (52% to 41%) while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points (54% to 39%),” explains the research. “In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men (50 % of men voted for Democratic candidates, 48% for Republican candidates) while maintaining an 18-point lead among women.”
However, in the 2020 elections, men divided 50% Trump and 48% Biden, “while Biden’s advantage narrowed to 11 points among women (55% to 44%).”
A major point for Biden was his increase in the suburban vote over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump, meanwhile, remained strong in rural areas.
“The political split between America’s rural areas and its suburban and urban locales remained substantial in 2020. Biden did considerably better among suburban voters in 2020 than Clinton did in 2016 (54% for Biden, 45% for Clinton),” this was one of the keys to the Democrat’s victory. In addition, Biden received solid support among urban resident votes (66% overall), however, “Trump gained among urbanites relative to his performance in 2016 (33% in 2020, 24% in 2016).”
Trump “garnered the support of 65% of rural voters, including 71% of White rural voters; the latter represented an increase over the 62% he received among this group in 2016.”
In any case, the key point of the Pew Research Center’s analysis is that Trump achieved a record of capitalizing on the Latino vote like no other Republican in history.
According to the study, Trump took 38% of the Latino vote, beating candidates such as Bush 2000 (35%), McCain (31%) and Romney (27%). That is why he got a great result in Florida.
An interesting point is that Trump received greater support among Latino voters without a college degree (41%) than among college-educated Latinos (30%). These results show the interests of blue-collar and entrepreneurial Latinos who do not necessarily have degrees or are professionals.
Indeed, the analysis makes clear that while “Biden took a 59% majority of the Hispanic vote, Trump (with 38%) gained significantly over the level of support Republican candidates for the House received in 2018 (25%). To be sure, Hispanic voters are not a monolith; there is substantial diversity within the Hispanic electorate.”
Perhaps the key for Republicans is to find the balance point between maintaining or improving their numbers in the suburban electorate (where Democrats grew) and continuing to reach out to conservative Latinos who are not few and can be decisive in swing states. Especially if it is taken into account that Trump himself and the current governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, both very popular in the Floridian state, are two of the figures that are emerging as GOP candidates for the 2024 elections.