It is certain that in this phase of stagnation, Russia is more than likely to win the war against Ukraine. Western efforts are proving to be expensive and public opinion is not as lively as it was a couple of months ago in favor of Ukraine. In times of inflation and looming recession, people start thinking about their own problems first.
Russia shifted from a direct contact conflict to a heavy bombing campaign and has smaller, targeted goals — mostly in the Donbas — instead of a full-scale invasion of the second-largest European country, after Russia. Ukraine did a very good job at defending its territory from Russian troops, but it seems that the sheer volume of airstrikes is now inching its defeat closer.
However, it is also certain that Putin was shortsighted. He never thought the European Union and NATO would be able to react swiftly and even dare to continue expanding the military alliance with future, potential Russian targets: Finland and Sweden. All 30 NATO members just signed the accession protocols of both Nordic countries.
This, of course, will sway Putin from attacking these countries, but Moldova and Georgia still seem to be on the kill list. But the West seems to finally be standing up to Putin.
This article originally appeared in El American’s newsletter on July 6, 2022. Subscribe for free here!
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