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Sino-Taiwanese Crisis: From Threat to Bluff

Crisis sino-taiwanesa: de la amenaza a un burdo bluff

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The division between China and Taiwan (the island has been called Taiwan since 1912) dates back to 1949, when the communist revolutionaries led by Mao Zedong overthrew the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek, who fled to the island of Formosa to install his autonomous government, sovereign and independent of Mao in Beijing.

The Communists never accepted Taiwan and its government as a sovereign and independent state of China. However, the precarious economic conditions of China at the beginning of Mao’s government didn’t allow the regime to embark on a war of persecution against the remnants of Chiang Kai-shek’s troops. Mao logically opted to strengthen his control and power in mainland China, a task which as we know he successfully accomplished after the brutal and criminal implementation of his totalitarian rule.

As the years went by, conditions changed, unfortunately, in favor of mainland China. In 1978, the United States broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan and initiated diplomatic relations with the Beijing government. However, the United States developed an ambivalent stance. For instance, the following year they enacted a law by which the U.S. legally committed to protect and defend Taiwan in case of aggression, in addition to being its main supplier of military equipment, despite not having formal diplomatic relations.

But Xi’s China is far from Mao’s China, as today the nation is no longer a backward society, populated by millions of peasants who perish from hunger. On the contrary, it is a country that has become a powerful power not only at regional but global level, with advanced technology, which managed to develop and become the second most powerful economy in the world and one of the most numerous military forces on the planet. Today, it feels able to openly challenge the United States and its partners in the struggle for world leadership.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose agenda included Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, announced then her Asia tour. According to the Lower House’s official statement, the tour’s objective was to strengthen “mutual security, economic partnership, and democratic governance”.

Initially, nonetheless, Taiwan wasn’t on the agenda. It was the Wall Street Journal that leaked the information indicating that Pelosi had indeed planned to officially visit Taiwan and hold a meeting with the president of that country, deemed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as “the rebel island.”

The reaction of the communist government of Beijing was not long in coming. It fiercely strongly opposed the visit, considering it an interference in China’s internal affairs, in addition to the fact that, in its view, it violates one of the backbone principles of Chinese diplomacy and its “one China” policy. Such a visit is interpreted as an encouragement to Taiwanese independence fighters, therefore, it was absolutely unacceptable to the Chinese government.

Tensions rose to such an extent that President Joe Biden himself spoke by telephone with his counterpart Xi Jinping, who warned him that if Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan materialized, “they were playing with fire.” President Biden’s response was weak, as he asked Pelosi herself not to visit the island in accordance with the recommendations issued by the Pentagon, which told her that “it was not advisable to visit the island now.”

In the midst of the visit, China deployed its troops in towns near Taiwan, flew fighter planes over the defensive airspace, and launched missiles with real ballistic missiles over the Formosa Strait. Further, according to the official statement of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, there was a possibility of “selective military actions.”

In this case, luckily for us all, China’s threats were nothing but a geopolitical bluff. However, a conflict between China and Taiwan would have global consequences. The U.S.  has strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific, so such involvement is possible. All governments and democratic forces should condemn the abusive behavior of mainland China and support the exemplary Taiwanese democracy.

 

 

Nahem Reyes is a PhD in history from the Andrés Bello Catholix University and associate member of the American Studies Center of the Central University of Venezuela. // Nahem Reyes es doctor en Historia de la Universidad Católica Andrés Bello y miembro asociado del Centro de Estudios de América de la Universidad Central de Venezuela.

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