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In recent months, Republicans have been gaining ground on Democrats heading into the midterms. A recent YouGov poll found the governing party’s lead “nearly disappearing” in October, reaching a low of 2 percentage points ahead of the GOP.
According to the poll, led by Yahoo News, 46% of registered voters say they will choose Democratic candidates, compared to 44% who will support Republicans. The poll’s margin of error is 2.7%, making it a technical tie.
The results of the same poll in August gave the Democrats a 6-point lead (45% vs. 39%) and in September it was reduced to 4 points (45% vs. 41%).
These results take into account all voters, including those who have not yet decided to vote in the midterms. When only those who will “definitely” participate in the elections are considered, the difference is much closer: 48% will support the Democrats and 47% will support the Republicans.
There, too, there has been progress on the GOP side. In September, 48% supported Democrats and 45% supported Republicans.
Republicans win over independents and undecided
Support numbers for Democrats have been consistent, while Republicans have grown noticeably. This is, according to the poll analysis, because GOP discourse appears to be winning over undecided voters.
Independent voters have also been a crucial factor for Republicans. While support for Biden varies little among Democrat voters and has, in fact, increased, the independents’ rejection of Biden benefits the GOP.
In August, 66% of registered voters who disapproved of Biden’s performance also said they preferred a Republican in their House district. Now that number is 10 points higher (76%).
In contrast, 45% of voters said they preferred a Democrat in their district and 40% approved of the way Biden was running the country. Today, those numbers have changed slightly (46% and 47%).
Support for Republicans has also historically increased among Hispanics. According to a Bienvenido poll, the GOP will have its highest support among Latino voters in 28 years.
During the “blue wave” of the 2018 midterms, Democrats outperformed Republicans in the Hispanic vote by a 40-point gap. Four years later, the gap has been cut in half.
Tomás Lugo, journalist and writer. Born in Venezuela and graduated in Social Communication. Has written for international media outlets. Currently living in Colombia // Tomás Lugo, periodista y articulista. Nacido en Venezuela y graduado en Comunicación Social. Ha escrito para medios internacionales. Actualmente reside en Colombia.