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In both 2016 and 2020, the major pollsters underestimated Republican voters in key states. In Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, the trend was for a clean Democratic victory, but Donald Trump was able to take some of these races or prove that the election was actually much closer. According to the founder and senior strategist of Trafalgar Group, this could repeat itself in 2022.
Speaking to The Daily Wire, Robert Cahaly asserted that, once again, Republican voters are going to be underestimated heading into the midterm elections.
The “underwater” voters in 2022
According to him, behind the demonization of MAGA voters, “aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard — they’re not even posting on social media. They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”
In turn, Cahaly revealed why races like Pennsylvania showed such a significant difference to one side and now the gap is narrowing. “Polls have two purposes. They’re either to reflect the electorate, or they’re to affect the electorate — and too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one,” he said.
“And so now they’re having to get back to reality because they don’t mind at all being wrong, but they hate it when somebody is right,” he added.
Returning to the concept of “underwater” voters, the Trafalgar Group senior strategist explained that, just as in 2016, the different insults and labels they receive for supporting former President Trump makes it more comfortable for them to remain anonymous. For example, Hillary Clinton called them “deplorables” and now Joe Biden is treating them as if they are a threat to the country going into the 2022 cycle.
As for his survey methodology, Cahaly argued that short surveys are best, given that, at present, people do not have time to answer many questions.
Joaquín Núñez es licenciado en comunicación periodística por la Universidad Católica Argentina. Se especializa en el escenario internacional y en la política nacional norteamericana. Confeso hincha de Racing Club de Avellaneda. Contacto: [email protected] // Joaquín Núñez has a degree in journalistic communication from the Universidad Católica Argentina. He specializes in the international scene and national American politics. Confessed fan of Racing Club of Avellaneda. Contact: [email protected]