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The Republican Party is regaining ground among voters heading into the November midterm elections, assuming a 2-point lead over Democrats in the month of September, according to a recent election poll.
Preference for a Republican-held federal Congress closed September at 47% versus a 44% Democrat preference, according to the latest Monmouth University poll, implying a 4-point rise for the GOP and a 6-point drop for the governing party.
However, support is not definitive. According to the poll data, 36 % of Americans want the GOP to be in charge and another 11% have no initial preference, but lean toward a Republican majority. Democrat control is preferred by 34%, with uncertain support from another 10 %.
The director of Monmouth University’s independent polling institute, Patrick Murray, estimates that the current reality of the U.S. economy favors Republicans. “Because the congressional map favors the GOP, Democrats need to do more than ‘keep it close’ in order to hold onto their House majority,” Murray said.
Biden’s administration benefits the Republican Party
The survey suggests that an overwhelming majority of voters are dissatisfied with the overall performance of the Democrat administration, especially the economy. Its results indicate that 82% of Americans see inflation as the most critical issue, followed by crime (72%), election integrity (70%), unemployment (68%) and immigration (67%).
Democrats’ initiatives follow to the bottom of the list, with Americans’ concern waning on the issues of energy infrastructure (57%), abortion (56%), racial inequality (53%), gun control (51%) and climate change (49%).
“Democrats are all over the place when it comes to their key issues,” Murray added on the subject. “This makes it difficult for the party to create a cohesive messaging strategy to motivate its base. Republicans, on the other hand, just have to hammer away at rising prices and ‘the wolf is at the door’ to get their voters riled up,”
Murray explained that the Democrat’s message does not have as much appeal to independents as the Republicans. “Even though truly persuadable independents are a rather small group these days, this small difference can have a major impact given the expectation that congressional control will hinge on a handful of very close contests,” he noted.
While concerns certainly clearly diverge between Republicans and Democrats, it is independent voters who determine the real difference.
About 8 in 10 Republicans put inflation, crime and immigration at the top of their list of issues of concern. A similar number of Democrats prioritize climate change, racial inequality, elections, gun control and abortion, and about 3 in 4 also emphasize jobs and inflation.
However, the only issue to which more than 3 in 4 independents attach a great deal of importance is inflation. In addition, independents are more concerned about general economic problems along with crime and immigration than other issues.
While Republicans prioritize the economy (71%) and Democrats prioritize social rights (67%), independents are more likely to give preference to economic issues (61%) than to concerns about rights and electoral integrity (29%).
Biden’s performance at the helm of the country is also an important factor for the Democrat Party in November. According to the poll, the only issue on which the president gets a net positive rating is the handling of the Covid pandemic (50% approve and 47% disapprove), which is one of the lowest priority issues for voters at this time.
“Obviously, the Republicans are hitting away at issues where Biden – and by extension, the Democratic Party – is weakest. But it’s also worth noting that Biden does not provide a rallying point for Democratic voters on some of the issues, such as abortion, that his party is leaning on to motivate its own base,” Murray said of the issue.
Only 3 out of 10 Americans approve of the job Biden has done in handling inflation (30%), which is the biggest concern for the country. The same goes for handling crime (32%) and immigration (31%), which are Republican flagships.
Biden also gets similarly low ratings on issues such as abortion (31%) and gun control (30%), two issues that are important to Democrat voters. About 4 in 10 approve of the president’s performance on other issues covered in the survey.
Tomás Lugo, journalist and writer. Born in Venezuela and graduated in Social Communication. Has written for international media outlets. Currently living in Colombia // Tomás Lugo, periodista y articulista. Nacido en Venezuela y graduado en Comunicación Social. Ha escrito para medios internacionales. Actualmente reside en Colombia.