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The Republican party of Arizona will decide next week which of the three leading candidates will face incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly this fall and try to retake a Senate seat that Republicans occupied for decades before 2020. Blake Masters, Mark Brnovich, and Jim Lamon will face each other next Tuesday, August 2nd, in the Arizona Republican primary. They will be the GOP candidate in a race that could decide the fate of the Senate this November.
The polls show that Mr. Masters is the favorite to win the election as he leads in the polls and has the backing of former President Trump and venture capitalist Peter Thiel. But the fragmented nature of the primary means that Brnovich and Lamon could still pull an upset and be the GOP nominee in November. However, both candidates have a lot of ground to recover since the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator shows that Masters is ahead with 27% of the vote, 10 points more than Brnovich and 12 points over Lamon.
Whoever wins will then have just a few weeks to reunite a party that has been well-known for internal disputes and presents a common front to unseat Kelly, who still enjoys a comfortable lead against either Masters or Lamon in the latest general election polls that have been conducted. Nevertheless, it is expected the general election will be a close affair, as Democrats only managed to win the state’s Senate seat by less than three percentage points.
Arizona will be one of the most important elections this fall. This is because it is one of the three states where Republicans are playing offense and are trying to unseat Democratic Senators and take back the control of the Senate — the other two states being Georgia and Nevada. Republicans only need a net change of one seat to recover control of the upper House, dealing a devastating blow to President Biden’s second half of his term.
The three main candidates for the Arizona Republican Primary
The Arizona GOP primary follows a similar dynamic to the ones in Ohio and Pennsylvania: a crowded field vying to show themselves as the true MAGA/America First candidates where whoever is the Trump-endorsed candidate possesses an important (but not overwhelming) advantage over the rest of the candidates. In Arizona, two of the candidates (Masters and Lamon) are presenting themselves as the outsiders who will break the “establishment” consensus, while the other is trying to use his track record to paint himself as the trusted conservative who will challenge the Biden Administration in Washington.
Blake Masters is the current frontrunner of the election, and his endorsement by Trump and the financial backing of Peter Thiel might be a couple of advantages too big for his rivals to overcome. Masters is a tech entrepreneur named president of the Thiel foundation in 2015. His campaign has branded him as “Arizona’s true MAGA candidate.” Trump’s endorsement of Masters has been a central part of his pitch for conservative voters in Arizona.
Lamon is competing against Masters as the true ‘outsider’ candidate in this primary, calling himself the true “America First candidate.” He has also highlighted his background as a businessman to shore up his outsider credentials. He has made his military service during the Cold War a big part of his candidacy pitch. Lamon has accused Masters of receiving campaign contributions from California tech companies (mainly by Mr. Thiel). Lamon has used a significant part of his wealth to finance his campaign.
Brnovich completes the list of the three top candidates in the Republican field, and he went from the clear frontrunner of the race earlier this year to fighting with Lamon for second place. Brnovich is the state’s Attorney General and is trumpeting his record of lawsuits against the Biden Administration as a central part of his campaign.
The role of Trump’s 2020 voter fraud claims in the Arizona primary
Brnovich’s potential weakness in this year’s primary was his refusal to believe Trump’s voter fraud charges in Arizona in the 2020 election—an issue that has divided the state’s party over the last couple of years. Brnovich has since partly changed his mind over the issue, publishing a report saying the election presented “severe vulnerabilities.”
Although the candidates have decided to focus on more current issues (border security, inflation, etc.) Trump’s claims over the 2020 election still cast a shadow on the election and could be a crucial factor in the crowded primary. The Arizona GOP and Republican Governor Doug Ducey entered a political fight over the latter’s certification of Biden’s victory in 2020, with the AZGOP publicly censuring Gov. Ducey over the issue. The state was also the center of an extensive audit of the election results in Maricopa County, which confirmed Biden’s win but also cast doubts on the state’s voter laws.
Negative ads between the candidates have dominated the final weeks of the primary, yet, whoever emerges victorious next Tuesday must reunite the state’s party and gear itself for a tough fight against Senator Mark Kelly in November.
Daniel is a Political Science and Economics student from the University of South Florida. He worked as a congressional intern to Rep. Gus Bilirakis (FL-12) from January to May 2020. He also is the head of international analysis at Politiks // Daniel es un estudiante de Cs Políticas y Economía en la Universidad del Sur de la Florida. Trabajo como pasante legislativo para el Representate Gus Bilirakis (FL-12) desde enero hasta mayo del 2020. Daniel también es el jefe de análisis internacional de Politiks.