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A few months ago some were taking Mark Kelly’s re-election in Arizona for granted. However, recent polls show that the election is a toss-up. In fact, the Real Clear Politics polling average places the candidates within the margin of error. Why is Blake Masters in a technical tie with Sen. Mark Kelly? The most likely reason has a name: Kari Lake.
Since the race between the two began, Kelly had enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls. Some had him winning by 8%, others by 6%, but all pollsters agreed that the Democrats would retain the seat.
Things began to change slightly after the debate, where Masters attempted to nationalize the election and the former astronaut sought to label his rival as an extremist. However, the Republican’s resurgence in the race coincides with Kari Lake’s “momentum” heading into November 8.
The gubernatorial candidate currently enjoys her widest gap in the polls, 3.2%. Lake’s strong performance could well be responsible for Masters’ rise, since, cross-voting (voting for a Republican in one and Democrat in the other) is not common among Arizona voters.
Some Democrats have already expressed concern about this. For example, Roy Herrera, a Democratic election lawyer told Politico that “there’s a very narrow path to victory for Democrats in Arizona. Any poll that shows the Democrats are doing any better than the low or mid-single digits is probably not accurate, or won’t be maintained through the election cycle.”
For his part, a Democrat close to Kelly’s campaign said, “We believe this is a race that’s within a point in either direction, and there’s still a good chance that we would lose. And it’s important people understand that.”
Joaquín Núñez es licenciado en comunicación periodística por la Universidad Católica Argentina. Se especializa en el escenario internacional y en la política nacional norteamericana. Confeso hincha de Racing Club de Avellaneda. Contacto: [email protected] // Joaquín Núñez has a degree in journalistic communication from the Universidad Católica Argentina. He specializes in the international scene and national American politics. Confessed fan of Racing Club of Avellaneda. Contact: [email protected]