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Ron DeSantis’ arrival at the governor’s mansion in Florida could have changed the state’s electoral history. In 2018, the current governor had to fight tooth and nail to defeat Democrat Andrew Gillum. After days of controversy, the then Republican candidate won by a mere 33,000 votes. Four years later, the partisan trend in the state seems to have taken the Republican highway at high speed.
While the Republican Party passed the Democrats in registered voters in the Sunshine State, it turns out that, since the August primary election, the gap expanded by a ratio of nine to one.
According to Sun Sentinel data, “Florida has 5.28 million registered Republicans for the Nov. 8 election — an increase of more than 86,376 from the number of Republicans registered to vote in the August primary. The state has 4.97 million Democrats — just 9,380 more than the number who were registered to vote in August.”
The last time the Democrats won a presidential election in Florida was when Barack Obama prevailed over Mitt Romney by a 0.86% margin. In addition, the last blue senator to represent the state in the Upper House was Bill Nelson, who held his seat from 2001 to 2019.
That is, the last time Democrats won a national election in the state was in 2012. Currently, Florida’s only Democratic statewide elected official is Nikki Fried, who serves as Commissioner of Agriculture. However, state Sen. Wilton Simpson (R) is in the running to succeed her in office beginning in 2023.
“It might be time to consider Florida, if not a red state, than a red-leaning state. If you’re just being factual, until the Democrats start winning races statewide with some degree of regularity, it’s hard to call it a battleground state,” Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University, told the Sun Sentinel.
Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio very comfortable in Florida polls
Both the incumbent governor and the incumbent senator are comfortably leading in their respective races. As for the former, according to Real Clear Politics, he boasts an average lead of 11.5% over Charlie Crist (D). Should this result occur, it would be the largest gap between the two parties since 2002, when Jeb Bush defeated Bill McBride by 12.8%.
As for Rubio, he leads his race against Val Demings by 7.5%, which would mean a third term for the incumbent Senator.
Joaquín Núñez es licenciado en comunicación periodística por la Universidad Católica Argentina. Se especializa en el escenario internacional y en la política nacional norteamericana. Confeso hincha de Racing Club de Avellaneda. Contacto: [email protected] // Joaquín Núñez has a degree in journalistic communication from the Universidad Católica Argentina. He specializes in the international scene and national American politics. Confessed fan of Racing Club of Avellaneda. Contact: [email protected]