Leer en Español
BRAZIL is heading to the polls in a month’s time and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains ahead in the polls, but the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, still has a few aces up his sleeve that could force a second round.
With a polarized electorate divided between the socialist candidate who intends to return to power and Bolsonaro who intends to retain it, the campaign reaches its last 30 days, but with the clear possibility that, in the first round on October 2, neither of them will get more than 50% of the votes and thus settle the dispute.
Until two weeks ago, most polls pointed to a possible victory of Lula in the first round, but this scenario has changed and now all polls point to the need for a second round, to be held on Sunday, October 30.
The Datafolha Institute, a renowned polling firm in the country, recently predicted a possible victory for Lula in the first round. The latest poll, however, released on Thursday, no longer foresees it.
According to this poll, Lula has a voting intention of 45% and has lost two percentage points in the last month, while support for Bolsonaro has remained stable at 32%.
According to Datafolha, Lula would rise to 53% while Bolsonaro would reach 38% in the possible second round, which for Bolsonaro would mean four more weeks to try to undermine the image of the socialist candidate.
Behind Lula and Bolsonaro, follow a dozen candidates of various tendencies, among which stands out Labor’s Ciro Gomes (third with 9% and who maintains an aggressive campaign against the two favorites).
Although Gomes has already stated that in an eventual second round between Bolsonaro and Lula he would abstain from supporting one or the other, all polls suggest that the majority of his voters would turn in favor of the socialist candidate on October 30.
Bolsonaro’s cards
During the last few days, the Army reserve captain has had some good news in the economic area which, although he has not yet capitalized on them in the electoral arena, could be reflected in the next polls.
This week, the Government reported that the country’s economy has grown by 1.2% in the second quarter of the year and accumulates an expansion of 2.5% in the first six months of 2022.
Another official report recorded that unemployment (which was at 13% a year ago) has now fallen to 9.3%, while inflation is starting to ease, although it remains at 10%.
Bolsonaro also insists in his speech on the “agenda of traditional values”.
“We want peace and progress,” “food security and foreign currency for Brazil,” and to give agricultural producers “independence to work safely,” Bolsonaro told hundreds of people, who cheered him when he cited new rules that have allowed landowners to circulate armed throughout their lands.
“The carrying of weapons on farms is a reality and I can proudly say that shooting clubs have doubled in the country, because firearms give security to families”, which are “the most important thing in a society”, declared the president, adding that “God is always with the good citizens”.
He also assured that “arms give the certainty that this country will never be enslaved” and affirmed that “the proud people” cannot “accept that certain people who gave a terrible example to the country dare to speak of returning to lead this nation”, in a clear allusion to the corruption scandals that occurred while Lula was in the Government, between 2003 and 2010.
