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The special election in New York’s 19th district was one of the most anticipated last Tuesday night since many specialists saw it as a thermometer for November. While Republicans are expected to take control of the House of Representatives starting in 2023, the results in this district were not very encouraging for the GOP and Democrats celebrated.
It is a seat that Antonio Delgado vacated after taking over as New York’s Lt. Governor, which drew strong interest from Republicans. The Democrat was a popular incumbent who won re-election by 11% in 2020, but his departure opened the door to flip the seat.
Results of the NY 19th District Special Election
Pat Ryan (D)- 51,9 %
Marc Molinaro (R)- 48,9 %
Polls were very favorable for Marc Molinaro (R), who was leading comfortably against Pat Ryan, in what was expected to be a victory that would catapult the GOP into the midterm elections. The ingredients were in place for the GOP to flip the district, given Joe Biden’s popularity, inflation and the recessionary horizon.
However, voters opted for the Democratic candidate by a margin of 2.2%, about two thousand votes. This means they will hold the seat until November when Molinaro will have a rematch but this time against Josh Riley. This disassociation is a consequence of redistricting, whereby Ryan will defend the 18th district.
“One could reasonably expect and argue that republicans are going to win here. I’m not entirely sold that the GOP is going to win here but I will say that the general expectation is that they do. If I was to put money on it, I’d say republicans win this district”, had anticipated Ethan Kelly, a famous YouTube election analyst with progressive leanings.
In addition, Kelly suggested that the Supreme Court’s abortion decision could play an essential role in rousing the Democratic base in this district. Indeed, the trend in special elections since the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling is evidence of positive momentum for Democrats.
The district is also very important because of its electoral history, as its voters have moved with the national climate in recent years. For example, since 1996, they have voted for every presidential candidate who has crossed the 270-voter threshold. Two years ago, Joe Biden carried the district by a margin of just two percentage points.
Ryan even exceeded the difference the incumbent won in 2020, which helped increase the level of surprise among election analysts.
Despite the wobble, all is not lost for either the Republicans or Molinaro, as polls in the district favor him heading into Nov. 8. In that scenario, his opponent will be Josh Riley, a lawyer and former aide to Congressman Maurice Hinchey.
Joaquín Núñez es licenciado en comunicación periodística por la Universidad Católica Argentina. Se especializa en el escenario internacional y en la política nacional norteamericana. Confeso hincha de Racing Club de Avellaneda. Contacto: [email protected] // Joaquín Núñez has a degree in journalistic communication from the Universidad Católica Argentina. He specializes in the international scene and national American politics. Confessed fan of Racing Club of Avellaneda. Contact: [email protected]