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Just two weeks ago, President Joe Biden boarded a plane for a somewhat unexpected destination. The president’s presence was required in the state of Oregon, for no other reason than to rescue the Democrats in the governor’s race. According to polls, it will take more than that to keep the Beaver State from electing a Republican governor 40 years later.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Christine Drazan would take this three-way fight by two percentage points. While that doesn’t sound like much, keep in mind that Biden beat Trump in the state by 16% just two years ago.
Behind Drazan comes Democrat Tina Kotek, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, who aspires to continue the 40-year tradition of Democrats in the local governor’s mansion.
However, this election has a third contender, and her name is Betsy Johnson, a 71-year-old former state senator, who at a point reached 25% in the polls, but, two weeks from November 8, she is reaping between 10 and 15% of the votes. Johnson’s campaign split the Democratic vote, making Drazan the favorite to become governor.
What makes it possible for Republicans to win in Oregon 40 years later?
It is no coincidence that the state’s largest city is Portland, a city that was the victim of numerous violent protests and looting during 2020. Crime and insecurity seem to be the strongest topics for the GOP across the country and Oregon is no exception.
According to a survey conducted by DHM Research and published by the Portland Tribune, “nearly half, 48%, don’t feel safe walking alone at night. Of those who feel unsafe, 78% fear being physically assaulted, 71% fear being confronted by people with mental health and drug problems, and 62% fear gun violence.”
Additionally, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, “Portland hit a record number of homicides last year and is seeing a similar trend this year. The city became the center of violent clashes in the summer of 2020 as people rallied for racial justice protests. In the fall of 2020, Oregon voters decriminalized possession of all drugs, a move that Ms. Drazan and Ms. Johnson say has led to an increase in drug use on the city’s streets.”
With Democrats controlling executive offices and the legislature, voters’ desire to see change is understandable and even logical. “We have great public policy challenges that the Democrats, with their one-party control, have made worse,” Drazan said.
The role of Latinos in Oregon
As in many of the elections that seem favorable to the Republicans, Latinos could be vital in electing Drazan as governor. According to data from the 2020 Census, Oregon is home to some 588,757 Hispanics.
They could be fundamental in giving the GOP victory in Oregon’s fifth electoral congress, where Lori Chavez-DeRemer could become the first Latina to reach Congress in this state.
A major businessman complicates Kotek’s aspirations
Another important fact is Phil Knight’s dissatisfaction with Democratic policies in Oregon. Co-founder and chairman emeritus of Nike, he is determined to see Kotek lose on November 8. To get his way, the mogul donated $3.75 million to Johnson’s campaign and another $1 million to Drazan.
With less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, it remains to be seen if the “red wave” will be strong enough to dye Oregon’s governorship red, 40 years later.
Joaquín Núñez es licenciado en comunicación periodística por la Universidad Católica Argentina. Se especializa en el escenario internacional y en la política nacional norteamericana. Confeso hincha de Racing Club de Avellaneda. Contacto: [email protected] // Joaquín Núñez has a degree in journalistic communication from the Universidad Católica Argentina. He specializes in the international scene and national American politics. Confessed fan of Racing Club of Avellaneda. Contact: [email protected]