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The Ortega regime announced on November 22 that Cubans would no longer need a visa to enter Nicaragua. The Associated Press cited the dictatorship’s Interior Ministry claiming the new policy was issued “with the purpose of promoting commerce, tourism and humanitarian family relations.” While this surprised some, it reflects a repeated pattern of behavior by Castro-Communism. This is its Nicaraguan exodus strategy.
The Nicaraguan socialist dictatorship is operating under the structural format established by the São Paulo Forum at the direction of the extinct Cuban tyrant, Fidel Castro, following the collapse of Soviet communism. It is a functional colony of the Marxist-Leninist state in Havana. Commerce between the two countries bears no relevance from an economic standpoint. Except for the upper echelon of the Cuban Communist Party (CCP), the Revolutionary Armed Forces and the new military-entrepreneur CCP class, Cubans on the island have no budget for tourism. Besides, the communist oligarchy in Cuba that does travel, prefers Europe and the United States as tourist stops. Cuban-Nicaraguan family ties are few. Most of those that can be found are in Miami, which makes the action by the Ortega regime irrelevant. So, what is really cooking between Managua and Havana?
The 11th of July Popular Uprising (11J) represents a threat to Cuban communism. To put it in boxing terms, it was knocked out with a strong punch in the face that 11J. Since processes of liberation go through repeating waves of social manifestations which prompts other politically connected actors to take definitive action at some point and overthrow the system, Castroism is shrewdly resorting to one of its oldest tricks to try and avert this. It cannot afford a repeat of 11J.
This is why the mass protests scheduled for November 15 crumbled before they occurred. A massive preemptive crackdown on potential marchers, partially, helped explain that. The other factor was the bizarre abandonment of the Civic March for Change (15N) by the former leader of Archipiélago, who, after organizing the event, mysteriously vanished into exile in Spain. The underlying threat to Castroism, however, remains present. For the anticipated 15N demonstrations, the Marxist-Leninist dictatorship, effectively, shut down Cuba. This cannot be repeated continuously.
The overarching premise of this survivorship maneuver engineered by the Cuban Marxist dictatorship, with the collusion of its Sandinista accomplice and subject, serves three main purposes. First, by making it easy for Cubans to leave the island and potentially reach the United States, the attractiveness of exile is amplified. This new policy potentially has the effect of diverting the energy of the great mass of discontented Cubans, particularly the young, on emigrating as opposed to challenging the dictatorship at home in the streets. The fact that Mexico—a country whose government is led by Manual López Obrador, an ideological partner of communist Cuba and continental socialism—will begin to streamline its visa processing mechanism from the country’s embassy in Havana, one can forecast that travel for Cubans from Managua to México City will be emphatically eased, lifting burdens for Cubans on their way to America.
The second objective of this stratagem is to augment the supply of remittances, a valuable source of revenue for Castro-Communism. When the socialist dictatorship in Cuba prodded Barack Obama to functionally end the privileged immigration status Cubans have enjoyed since the 1960s before he left the White House, Castroism vastly underestimated the level of dissatisfaction that Cubans have towards the communist rule and overestimated its capability to avert massive popular protests like that of 11J. Closing the revolving door of emigration, swelled public acts of rebellion and lessened the hard currency entry into the Castro regime’s coffers.
The third focus of this exodus in the making is to pressure the Biden-Harris administration on the embargo, sanctions, and the terrorist classification. The idea is the leverage that thousands of Cubans at America’s southern border could lend the Castro-Communist state, when it initiates “discussions” on solving the crisis they fabricated. This has happened before many times. The Mariel Boat Exodus (1980), as well as the Boat Rafter Exodus (1990s). The second cited event was directly related to the Maleconazo, which was a popular uprising in Havana in 1994 where thousands of Cubans took to the streets demanding freedom. The dead dictator Castro himself, in reaction to this peaceful insurrection, ordered his repressive forces to allow Cubans to leave in rafts and tugboats.
The United States must not let a communist dictatorship, ninety miles from its shores, dictate its immigration policy. It has happened all too many times before. The inevitable collapse of Castro-Communism, the mastermind of the continental socialist empire and subversion headquarters, must be allowed its course. Playing into this orchestrated scheme carried out by its Nicaraguan puppet to serve as a trampoline for a massive exodus, would be a grave mistake. The Castro regime’s use of immigration as a weapon, makes an exodus, an act of war.
Julio M Shiling, political scientist, writer, director of Patria de Martí and The Cuban American Voice, lecturer and media commentator. A native of Cuba, he currently lives in the United States. Twitter: @JulioMShiling // Julio es politólogo, escritor, director de Patria de Martí y The Cuban American Voice. Conferenciante y comentarista en los medios. Natural de Cuba, vive actualmente en EE UU.