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Almost 20 days away from the midterms, Republicans are already sitting at the table, knife and fork in hand, hoping that next November 8, 2022 will look as much like 2010 or 2014 as possible. To achieve their goal and regain control of both houses of Congress, they will have the special help of Latinos and independent women.
As for the latter group, key to Joe Biden’s victory in 2022, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that they lean toward the GOP by an 11% margin in the midterms.
In turn, likely voters also favor the GOP by four percentage points.
When asked about the most important issue currently facing the country, 26% said the economy, 18% chose inflation and, closing the podium, 8% chose the state of democracy. Only 5% mentioned abortion as the country’s central problem.
Finally, 45% of likely voters surveyed said they would choose former President Trump in a hypothetical election in 2024, versus 44% who would vote for Joe Biden.
Democratic strategist: “I’m wishing the election were in August”
After the honeymoon Democrats experienced following the overturning of Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, voters seem to have looked back at gas prices, accelerating inflation and the economic recession, leading them to look fondly at Republicans.
“I’m wishing the election were in August. I think we peaked a little early,” Matt Bennett, a member of the center-left Third Way, told POLITICO.
“I think we had three really good weeks in August that everybody patted themselves on the back,” scoffed one Democratic strategist who advises major party donors. “We were like, ‘Yeah, that should be enough to overcome two years of shitty everything’. It’s not looking great. The best we can hope for right now is a 50-50 Senate, but the House is long gone,” a Democratic strategist and adviser told the media outlet.
Now, if indeed the Senate also returns to Republican hands after November 8, Democrats would have serious cause for concern heading into 2024.
As it turns out, the electoral map for that year appears to be very favorable to the GOP, which will hardly have to defend competitive seats, while Democrats will put seats in play in Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, West Virginia and Nevada.
Joaquín Núñez es licenciado en comunicación periodística por la Universidad Católica Argentina. Se especializa en el escenario internacional y en la política nacional norteamericana. Confeso hincha de Racing Club de Avellaneda. Contacto: [email protected] // Joaquín Núñez has a degree in journalistic communication from the Universidad Católica Argentina. He specializes in the international scene and national American politics. Confessed fan of Racing Club of Avellaneda. Contact: [email protected]